Insurgency-Related Conflict

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Peter J. Quaranto

Modern insurgent groups increasingly leverage transnational extremist networks, digital platforms, and foreign state sponsorship to threaten United States personnel, disrupt global supply chains, and destabilize partner governments. To counter these evolving threats, U.S. policymakers must choose between monitoring, containing, defending, or transforming untenable political and security situations during the critical pre-crisis and early crisis phases.

Historically, overly militarized counterinsurgency frameworks have failed because they ignore the local political economy and the governance services that rebel groups provide to establish legitimacy. As these conflicts become integrated into broader great power rivalries, insurgencies are adopting advanced technologies like autonomous weapons and commercial drones to enhance their tactical lethality. Consequently, effective crisis response requires the intelligence community to proactively assess insurgent command structures, external support networks, and host-government legitimacy. Ultimately, building long-term policy consensus demands deeper coordination between executive agencies and Congress to adapt legal authorities and resource allocations before crises escalate.

Comment

The March 23 Movement’s reopening of commercial banks in Goma illustrates how modern insurgencies exploit administrative vacuums to establish durable local legitimacy. This transition from kinetic operations to civic governance in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo exposes the limitations of conventional Western counterinsurgency doctrines that rely on state-centric security assistance. By embedding parallel financial and administrative structures within North Kivu, the group transforms local economies, rendering external military suppression ineffective against these deeply integrated socio-economic networks.

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