Libya has boosted crude production to a 13-year high of nearly 1.5 million bpd, targeting 2.1 million bpd within three to five years, supported by OPEC's stronger long-term oil demand outlook. Western energy majors, including Eni, BP, TotalEnergies, Shell, and KBR, are expanding investments in Libya, driven by the post-Ukraine war need to source new oil and gas supplies.
Geologically, Libya holds Africa's largest proved crude reserves (48 billion barrels) and previously sustained 1.65 million bpd. TotalEnergies is committed to increasing production from fields like Waha, Sharara, Mabruk, and Al Jurf by at least 175,000 bpd. Shell is also looking to return, and Eni recently announced new offshore gas discoveries of over 1 trillion cubic feet. However, political instability, including disputes over revenue sharing and rival factions, remains the biggest threat, risking future export blockades. A recently enacted LYD190 billion (US$29.6 billion) national budget for 2026, allocating LYD12 billion to the NOC, faces rejection from various factions who view it as an elite-driven carve-up bypassing the UN-led peace process. Despite these risks, Western firms remain undaunted, seeing Libya as a significant, albeit challenging, oil and gas option.
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