The Middle East after the American imperium

Asia Times  |  Leon Hadar

United States military retrenchment in the Middle East is dismantling a three-quarter-century hegemonic framework, forcing traditional allies to diversify their security partnerships. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are actively hedging by de-escalating tensions with Iran and expanding diplomatic and economic ties with China. This structural shift stems from decades of costly, destabilising forward deployments and open-ended commitments, exemplified by the post-2003 occupation of Iraq.

While Washington retains substantial local strike capabilities and naval assets, regional actors no longer view its diplomatic veto or security umbrella as permanent. As a result, Beijing and Moscow are leveraging commercial access, arms sales, and energy diplomacy to gain regional influence without assuming costly security-guarantor roles. Ultimately, long-term stability depends on Washington's ability to secure narrow interests, such as freedom of navigation and nuclear nonproliferation, without re-assuming the exhausting burden of total regional guarantorship.

Comment

The consolidation of the Abraham Accords illustrates how Middle Eastern states are constructing localised security alignments to offset a less predictable American commitment. While the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain maintains its maritime patrol mandate, Gulf partners increasingly view these naval deployments as tactical assets rather than absolute strategic guarantees. This shift encourages bilateral security arrangements with Beijing and Moscow, diluting the exclusive American defence integration that previously defined the Persian Gulf. Consequently, the historic security architecture of the region is fragmenting into transactional alignments where Arab capitals balance Washington against Eurasian competitors.

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