12 July 2026

The Silent Dependency: GNSS Vulnerabilities, Quantum PNT, and the Future of Small Wars

Small Wars Journal | Muhammad Waqas Haider

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was shot down on December 25, 2024, after experiencing Russian GPS jamming, marking the first instance of civilian fatalities directly caused by radio-frequency interference. This tragedy underscores how modern military and civilian operations critically depend on GNSS signals that have now become highly exploitable vulnerabilities in contemporary battlespaces.

Widespread electronic warfare in Ukraine and the Baltic region has demonstrated that legacy systems are easily disrupted by sophisticated spoofing and orbital jamming, which defeats legacy detection. To counter this, DARPA and AUKUS are accelerating PNT services based on quantum technologies like cold-atom inertial sensors and chip-scale atomic clocks. Middle powers, including the Pakistan Air Force, must integrate these resilient architectures into their operational doctrines to survive in highly contested airspaces. Ultimately, military forces must treat PNT denial as an expected operational reality, embedding comprehensive GNSS-independent training across all echelons to ensure survival in future small wars.

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