The Middle East After The Iran War: What Comes Next?

Eurasia Review  |  Shehab Al-Makahleh

United States and Saudi airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, alongside Jordanian interceptions of Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American bases, have expanded the Israel-US-Iran confrontation into a volatile, multi-theater regional crisis. This escalation threatens critical Gulf energy infrastructure and key maritime corridors like the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global shipping risks.

Beneath these active hostilities lies a shifting geopolitical landscape where traditional state-to-state rivalries have transitioned into complex proxy warfare, missile competition, and cyber operations. Consequently, Gulf Cooperation Council states face severe economic disruptions, including a 5 per cent drop in gross domestic product and declining foreign direct investment. To manage this instability, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's diplomatic efforts in Washington focus on building a new regional security architecture featuring integrated missile defense, while Turkey's expanding military footprint and American integrated deterrence strategies attempt to counter persistent Iranian influence across Syria and Lebanon.

Comment

The integration of Jordanian air defences to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles demonstrates a functional shift in regional security cooperation that bypasses formal treaty alliances. This operational coordination suggests that shared threat perceptions regarding Tehran's missile capabilities are overriding historical diplomatic hesitations among Arab states. Consequently, the expansion of the Abraham Accords may increasingly rely on ad-hoc tactical coalitions rather than comprehensive political normalisation. This pattern of security alignment alters the traditional reliance on unilateral American security guarantees in the Gulf.

To read in details click here