Building Quantum-Ready Infrastructure: Preparing for the Physical Demands of Quantum Computing

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Hideki Tomoshige

The United States has a vital opportunity to establish ahead of time the industrial infrastructure needed for quantum computing, otherwise resource bottlenecks could endanger national security. According to BloombergNEF, the capital spending by the 14 largest companies in the world providing data centre services will amount to almost $750 billion in 2026, showing just how quickly infrastructure demands can exceed planning.

The quick growth of AI data centres should act as a caution for quantum development, since the latter depends on highly specialised physical supply chains rather than simply on a large amount of electricity. In order to prevent critical shortages, federal agencies are identifying the requirements for helium-3, helium-4, rare earths and specialised semiconductors. The critical supply chains still remain very vulnerable. As a result, the Department of Energy is using pilot projects such as Quantum Genesis to gather real-world data on cooling-water demand and helium losses. The early findings will aid in revising the national planning assumptions before commercialisation speeds up in the early 2030s.

Comment

The shift to quantum-ready infrastructure reveals a vital limitation in the industrial capabilities of the West, particularly when it comes to the precise engineering of dilution refrigerators needed for superconducting qubits. Even though quantum software development receives the most attention from the public, physical scaling is dependent on a highly concentrated supply chain for cryogenic cooling systems that can achieve millikelvin temperatures. The Department of Energy's Quantum Genesis programme shows the difficulties involved in relying on a small number of specialised precision manufacturers. The fact that industrial capacity in this area is concentrated among a few European and North American companies producing precision optics and cryogenics creates a kind of structural bottleneck which cannot be overcome by a short-term injection of capital.

The limitation arises from the methods used to purify and liquefy helium-3, a rare isotope which is necessary for achieving the operational temperatures below one Kelvin. Since helium-3 is mainly obtained as a byproduct of tritium decay in the maintenance of nuclear weapons, its availability is determined by national defence programmes. As a result, the growth of projects such as Quantum Genesis is dependent on the speed of nuclear decommissioning and the tritium recovery cycles rather than on demand from the commercial market.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the growth of the Quantum Genesis programme is still held back by the physical limitations of obtaining helium-3 from tritium, which cryogenic methods are most likely to lead to a change in the industrial needs for state-supported quantum infrastructure?

The fact that quantum computing architectures based on trapped ions or photonics—those which function at higher temperatures or make use of different cooling methods—will increasingly draw in infrastructure investment supported by governments means that the helium-3 shortage will be avoided, although at the same time the industrial demand will be shifted towards precision laser systems and the manufacturing of integrated photonic circuits. As a result, the strategic emphasis of projects such as Quantum Genesis will change from cryogenic supply chains to those concerning advanced semiconductor lithography and optical fabrication facilities.

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