Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping could meet at a proposed summit in China next month, raising concerns about a world divided into spheres of influence. Steve Bloomfield warns that such a gathering could weaken the existing international order and undermine the security of US allies in Europe and East Asia. The proposed meeting remains uncertain.
Bloomfield connects the possibility to Trump's approach towards Russia's war in Ukraine and his administration's criticism of traditional US allies. He argues that Putin's proposal could reinforce Moscow's ambitions in eastern Europe while supporting Xi's interests in the East China Sea and South China Sea. The author also examines the economic and technological stakes, including control of supply chains, technology platforms and space capabilities. Russia's fossil fuel resources form another element of the potential alignment. The article contrasts this emerging configuration with an earlier conception of multipolarity centred on the US, China and the European Union. It also questions whether the proposed summit would produce a lasting geopolitical arrangement, given domestic political divisions in the US and continuing uncertainty about Trump's foreign policy legacy.
The proposed Trump–Putin–Xi summit raises an alliance question that extends beyond the leaders' personal relationships. The article's central concern is that a retreat from established US commitments could alter how European and East Asian partners assess American security guarantees. Alliances depend partly on military capability, but also on the credibility of political commitments. A summit that appears to legitimise competing spheres of influence could affect that credibility before any formal agreement emerges.
The potential consequences would differ across regions. In Europe, uncertainty over US support could affect calculations surrounding Russia's war in Ukraine and the security of states exposed to Russian pressure. In East Asia, the same uncertainty could influence how Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and Australia interpret China's regional ambitions. These are distinct strategic environments, yet the common mechanism is the perceived reliability of American commitments. The article's argument therefore rests on an inference: diplomatic accommodation among the three leaders could have consequences beyond the immediate subjects of their discussions.
The comparison also has limits. The proposed summit does not establish that Washington, Moscow and Beijing share a common strategic programme. The US, Russia and China retain competing interests, including over economic supply chains and technological leadership. The proposed meeting would nevertheless provide a visible test of whether diplomatic engagement among Trump, Putin and Xi translates into a durable change in the relationships underpinning existing alliances.
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