The Defence of Europe in a New Era: An Assessment

International Institute for Strategic Studies

European NATO countries are expanding operational self-reliance by closing critical capability gaps and assuming primary responsibility for continent-wide defence. Released on 16 September 2026, the International Institute for Strategic Studies dossier evaluates collective rearmament initiatives designed to overcome systemic underinvestment across member states. European land forces face major reorganisation demands alongside persistent NATO logistics bottlenecks, severe defence-industrial scaling limits, and fragile space-launch capabilities.

Maritime competition across the Arctic and High North further strains existing Allied force postures. Meanwhile, Central and Eastern Europe's emerging defence-industrial ecosystem underscores a broader strategic pivot, complementing Germany's rising defence expenditures and adapting to changing United States force deployments across the European theater. Severe manufacturing constraints endure. Addressing these persistent operational vulnerabilities requires rapidly expanding manufacturing scale, integrating disruptive emerging technologies, and enhancing military transit infrastructure to maintain long-term combat readiness and strategic deterrence across Western and Eastern Europe.

Comment

Fragmented procurement frameworks across European NATO states continue to obstruct rapid defence industrial expansion. Assessments from the European Defence Agency highlight severe manufacturing bottlenecks in solid rocket motor production and high-explosive artillery shell forging. Small batch orders prevent prime contractors from securing the private capital required to expand production lines. Without multi-year commitments under NATO's Defence Production Action Plan, defence firms remain reluctant to construct secondary manufacturing facilities.

This structural industrial bottleneck echoes NATO's 1978 Long-Term Defence Programme, which attempted to align national armament policies with collective operational demands. That Cold War initiative similarly struggled against national industrial protectionism, leaving frontline stockpiles vulnerable to rapid depletion. Consequently, the European Defence Fund's capital allocations risk repeating the structural inefficiencies of the 1978 Long-Term Defence Programme without unified joint procurement mandates.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor presents the primary barrier to scaling European munition production under NATO's Defence Production Action Plan — national industrial protectionism or the lack of long-term multi-year procurement contracts through the European Defence Fund?

The pattern suggests that national industrial protectionism remains the more durable obstacle, as member states routinely prioritise domestic prime contractors over cross-border efficiency. While multi-year contracts through the European Defence Fund provide financial predictability, they cannot easily overcome state reluctance to cede sovereign control over national defence industrial capacity. Consequently, European munition production will likely remain fragmented along national lines despite expanding capital allocations.

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