The potential withdrawal of US support from NATO presents a significant operational challenge for European defense, shifting the debate from strategic autonomy to immediate combat readiness. This article examines a scenario where US military participation is absent, focusing on the 'fight tonight' under current force structures. Critically, US absence would impact integration, not just mass, as the US provides NATO's operational 'operating system,' linking sensors to shooters, synchronizing effects, and setting standards.
Without US theatre-wide intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), space-based intelligence, deep precision strike, integrated air and missile defense, and strategic lift, European forces would be less coherent. This would result in degraded situational awareness, lengthened targeting cycles, and more episodic deep strike. Decision cycles would slow, and force employment would become more sequential and localized, relying on pre-planned coordination rather than rapid exploitation. This would necessitate a more cautious, deliberate, and attritional way of war, requiring broader defensive geometries and slower offensive advances, increasing vulnerability to a capable adversary.
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