On March 2, 2026, President Emmanuel Macron unveiled France’s new "Forward Deterrence" (Dissuasion Avancée) nuclear doctrine, aiming to enhance European defense autonomy while preserving French strategic independence. Supported by Belgium, Germany, and Poland, this doctrine involves consultation and conventional military collaboration, not nuclear warhead transfer. Its impact extends significantly to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) due to France's overseas territories and military presence, including FAZSOI, and its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Framed against global uncertainties like the Russia-Ukraine war, the doctrine could prompt China, with its growing IOR naval presence, to escalate military build-ups rather than pursue non-proliferation. South Asia's nuclear tensions also make the IOR a critical area. While France ratified Pelindaba Treaty protocols for a nuclear-weapon-free African zone, its "strategic ambiguity" regarding "vital interests" suggests potential flexibility. The doctrine is expected to integrate the IOR into broader security dilemmas and military consolidation, amidst fragile non-proliferation regimes.
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