21 June 2026

A nuclear order under strain?

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Daniel Salisbury

The 11th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT RevCon), held from April 27–May 22, 2026, failed to produce a consensus final document, reflecting growing schisms between nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). This deadlock was primarily due to disagreements over language concerning Iran’s non-compliance, further complicated by ongoing regional conflicts where nuclear facilities have been under attack in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The NPT, the cornerstone of the global nuclear order, has seen its last three review conferences fail to achieve consensus, with the last successful document in 2010. NWS, including the US, Russia, UK, France, and China, are expanding their nuclear arsenals, making progress towards Article VI disarmament pledges appear increasingly remote to NNWS. The expiry of the New START Treaty in February 2026 leaves no legally binding limits on US and Russian strategic arsenals, prompting US calls for "multilateral strategic stability and arms control" due to China's growing arsenal. Iran blamed the US, UK, and France for the RevCon failures, while the US accused Iran of holding treaty members hostage. Despite the lack of consensus, the global nuclear order persists, with a mass exodus of NNWS from the NPT remaining unlikely. The next RevCon is scheduled for 2031.

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