Change the Rules of the Gray Zone Game

U.S. Naval Institute  |  Liam Hospidales

China's maritime coercion in the South China Sea, characterized by water cannons and rammings by its coast guard and maritime militia, follows a rational, incremental logic that avoids triggering the U.S.–Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This pattern, which imposes costs on the Philippines and erodes its control, creates an equilibrium favoring Beijing.

To alter this, the United States and the Philippines must restructure incentives by applying game theory insights. Key adjustments include ensuring constant transparency through persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to document every incident, preannouncing automatic responses to specific Chinese actions (e.g., blockades triggering escorts, water cannons triggering multilateral patrols), and deploying appropriate assets like coast guard cutters and unmanned platforms for deterrence. These changes would shift the payoff matrix, making aggression less rewarding and more costly for Beijing by replacing opacity with transparency, ambiguity with certainty, and scarcity with strategically distributed presence.

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