The U.S. military's war with Iran, initiated by President Donald Trump, has unexpectedly become a protracted conflict of attrition, defying initial predictions of a quick victory. This "marathon" has exposed critical vulnerabilities, including severe munitions shortages, particularly for precision-strike missiles and THAAD interceptors, which will take years to replenish.
The conflict highlights that modern wars are seldom swift, draining stockpiles and testing resolve. The United States, while capable of complex targeted operations like the Caracas raid or the Iran nuclear strike, is ill-prepared for sustained engagements. Adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China are increasingly deploying cheap uncrewed vehicles to saturate defenses and strike fixed assets, demonstrating a shift where mass and precision are no longer exclusive to advanced militaries. Washington must increase defense spending for munitions, invest in scalable production, and adopt innovative weapons and defensive systems. It also needs to harden overseas bases and collaborate more effectively with allies, as Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang are closely studying these exposed strengths and weaknesses.
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