Is the Iran War Worth It?

Stimson  |  Will A. Smith, Michael Cohen

The Trump administration's war with Iran, initiated with strikes in June 2025 and February 2026, has largely failed to achieve its stated objectives, exposing the limits of military force. Iran's nuclear program remains broadly unchanged, its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz has grown, and its missile arsenal is largely intact, with U.S.

intelligence assessing Iran retained 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and 90% access to underground facilities. The conflict has cost the United States significantly in lives, money, munitions, and energy, with indirect costs potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars. While the U.S. military degraded Iran's conventional navy, destroying 161 vessels and 90% of its mines, it did not diminish the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' capacity for asymmetric maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The war also emboldened pro-nuclearization voices within Iran. Ultimately, the article concludes the war was not worth it for the United States.

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