The United States security documents typically describe adversaries as threats or competitors, but rarely acknowledge that behavior patterns among interstate rivals, such as China, Russia, and Iran, differ fundamentally from those of mere threats or competitors. This article explores the advantages and risks associated with leveraging interstate rivalry frameworks for strategy development and planning.
Advantages include reducing strategic uncertainty and gaining efficiencies in some aspects of force planning, offering a more tailored approach to long-term competition. Conversely, risks involve trusting the underlying data and accepting the methodical pace of research inherent in developing these frameworks. This analysis will benefit defense professionals responsible for developing regional or global strategies and for directing war-gaming efforts, by advocating for a more precise and effective strategic approach that accounts for the unique dynamics of rivalry.
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