John Warden's five-ring model, which posits that targeting enemy leadership can cause regime collapse, is challenged by Jacob Stoil regarding its applicability to Iran. Stoil argues that while a recent effective decapitation strike in Iran caused temporary paralysis, it neither brought down the regime nor secured victory.
This failure stems from Iran's nature as a robust, repressive state, unlike the fragile states Warden's model might apply to. Iran maintains a resilient system of repression, including the Basij and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, present in every city and rural district, which suppresses popular discontent and deters uprisings. For regime change, the United States and Israel must reverse Warden's preferred sequence, targeting and degrading the outermost ring—the "arms and fingers" of repression—rather than just the leadership. This involves substantially degrading local security forces or breaking their morale and loyalty, making them unable to stop a popular uprising.
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