Israel's tit-for-tat strikes with Iran over the weekend, despite US President Donald Trump's call for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold fire, threatened to thrust the Middle East into another direct confrontation. Israel bombed sites in Iran for the first time since April, after Iran fired missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Beirut.
This escalation highlights Trump's inability to fully contain his Israeli ally, Tehran's readiness to risk retaliation against its own territory to link the US-Iran war with the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and Iran's perception of Trump's low appetite for risk, aiming to extract more from nuclear negotiations. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian suggested the military strikes strengthened Tehran's negotiating position with the US, emphasizing "diplomacy and defence." Under massive economic pressure from a US naval blockade, Iran prioritizes sanctions relief, unfreezing tens of billions of dollars, and limiting Israeli escalation against Hezbollah. Trump, facing high oil prices and a midterm election, is perceived as keen for a deal, despite denying upfront asset unfreezing. The region remains dangerously destabilized, with significant risk of further US-Iran direct fighting.
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