U.S.-Iran peace talks appear stalled, with both Washington and Tehran potentially benefiting from a prolonged conflict rather than a rapid settlement, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively disrupted. The Trump administration's "Donroe Doctrine" seeks to strengthen U.S. influence in the Americas and reduce China's leverage over global trade and energy routes, including through ongoing efforts around the Strait of Hormuz.
For the IRGC, a peace deal poses an existential threat, as U.S. strategy aims to dismantle its financial and political structures. This stalemate, combined with depleting emergency stockpiles—like the IEA's 400 million barrel release, with 250 million used by April/May—and ongoing Middle Eastern supply disruptions (9-13 million bpd capacity shut in), is driving global oil inventories towards a critical five-year low by July. Brent crude prices are projected to spike to US$120-135 by late summer, potentially reaching US$200 a barrel as strategic reserves are emptied, triggering a secondary buying wave and stalling the global economy.
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