Global economic warfare is rapidly accelerating, with U.S. presidents imposing sanctions at double the previous rate and worldwide trade restrictions tripling between 2019 and 2024. This reflects a structural mismatch between the 1990s-designed global economy and today's intense geopolitical competition, exposing vulnerabilities in just-in-time supply chains and the dollar-centric financial system.
This fragmentation across finance, energy, technology, and industrial supply chains demands a new international economic order. The article outlines three potential paths: "Globalization 2.0," aiming for integration with shared rules and economic arms control, though difficult to achieve; a system of competing blocs, resembling the Cold War, which offers security but requires deliberate construction; or transactionalism, where great powers pursue bilateral deals. Transactionalism, while appealing to dominant economies, risks allies hedging and, more critically, could lead states to use military force for market access and resources, increasing geopolitical instability and the risk of imperialism. Economic fragmentation is already in motion, requiring Washington's guidance.
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