China has become the economic and logistical linchpin enabling Russia to wage a full-scale war against Ukraine, a development unforeseen by many analysts a decade ago. This authoritarian alignment, including cooperation with Iran on drone production and North Korea supplying ammunition and troops, has sustained Europe's longest land war since World War II.
Policymakers underestimated this strategic alignment, which has deepened significantly since 2012, particularly after Russia's 2022 invasion. The Xi-Putin partnership, marked by over 70 meetings, aims to reorganize global affairs around a revisionist China-Russia axis, eclipsing the US-led alliance system. China's indispensable economic support, including a 70% trade increase since 2021, has allowed Russia to withstand unprecedented sanctions, though this creates an asymmetric interdependence. While avoiding a formal alliance, both nations expand military ties and defense cooperation, with thousands of Chinese firms supplying Russia's war machine. However, the partnership faces structural imbalances, strategic divergences in global governance, and a preference for 'parallel play' over integrated military operations, yet poses a genuine threat to democracies.
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