Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan, announced on June 14, 2026, that the US and Iran had agreed on a deal to end their war, to be signed on June 19 in Switzerland. US President Donald Trump declared it a triumph, noting the Strait of Hormuz is open and the blockade lifted, but omitted Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpile.
Core issues like nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and Iran’s proxies are deferred for 60 days, prompting questions about the war's efficacy. The author, a nuclear security expert, argues the US achieved nothing, losing credibility. The conflict clarified mutual resolve but failed to resolve the nuclear commitment problem, especially after the US abandoned the 2015 JCPOA and bombed Iran during subsequent talks. Iran now demands guarantees and sanctions relief. The indivisibility problem, concerning the US demand for zero enrichment versus Iran's sovereign right, remains. This deal is a ceasefire, not a nuclear agreement, leaving Iran with its enrichment knowledge and stockpile, reinforcing the belief that only a nuclear weapon deters US-Israel attacks. The 60-day deferral is likely a pause before further failure.
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