Beyond Maximalism: Reimagining U.S. Strategy Toward Iran Through Systems Thinking

Center for International Policy  |  Sina Toossi

United States military operations against Iran in February 2026 exposed critical systemic failures in Washington's long-term regional strategy. Linear assumptions regarding coercion, military superiority, and maximalist pressure repeatedly failed to account for Iranian adaptation, escalation dynamics, and the resilience of institutionalised political orders under external attack, ultimately increasing the risk of a wider, permanent conflict.

This strategic shortfall, analysed by Sina Toossi in a report supported by Horizon 2045 and Ploughshares, highlights the limits of unilateral pressure. Rather than producing strategic victory, these coercive approaches intensified regional instability, strengthened hardline and militarised actors, and accelerated nuclear hedging. The persistent reliance on punitive measures has systematically ignored the complex feedback loops that allow regional adversaries to adapt and resist. Consequently, future policy frameworks require a fundamental shift toward systems thinking to prevent unintended escalatory spirals and manage the durable political realities of the Middle East.

Comment

The collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action demonstrated how linear deterrence models fail to suppress the asymmetric capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. By treating Iranian forward defence doctrines as isolated tactical provocations rather than systemic survival mechanisms, conventional coercion strategies inadvertently trigger accelerated nuclear enrichment. This feedback loop reveals that punitive economic sanctions often consolidate the domestic authority of hardline factions within the Supreme National Security Council instead of forcing diplomatic capitulation.

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