A brief history of how countries sleepwalk into war

Asia Times  |  John P Ruehl

United States retaliatory airstrikes on July 30, 2026, targeted Iranian military command centers and missile facilities following an attempted surprise attack on American forces in the Persian Gulf. This rapid escalation has intensified a conflict that began in February 2026, resulting in thousands of regional casualties and nearly $40 billion in US military expenditures.

Historically, American policymakers and the public have remained detached from the immediate domestic consequences of foreign military engagements due to geographic isolation and overwhelming power. This modern detachment mirrors historical miscalculations, such as those preceding the US Civil War and World War I, where leaders consistently underestimated the duration and human cost of industrial conflict. Despite initial executive predictions of a swift four-to-five-week campaign ending in the collapse of the Iranian government, the expanding theater now includes disruptive Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and infrastructure, threatening a prolonged regional war of attrition.

Comment

The current friction in the Persian Gulf echoes the tactical dynamics of Operation Earnest Will in 1987, where limited naval escort duties rapidly expanded into direct kinetic exchanges with Iranian forces. During that historical engagement, the deployment of US Navy assets to safeguard commercial shipping lanes exposed the limits of assuming an adversary would capitulate under economic pressure alone. This historical parallel suggests that localised strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command nodes rarely deter asymmetric proxies when ideological objectives override conventional cost-benefit assessments. The expansion of hostilities to the Red Sea corridor demonstrates how easily localised maritime interdictions morph into a multi-front war of attrition.

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