America’s Attrition Trap

Foreign Affairs | Nadia Schadlow

Attritional warfare has become the defining feature of modern conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, driven by structural mismatches between nominal military power and usable capability, rapid technological adaptation that prevents decisive breakthroughs, and a profound disconnection between military means and political ends. Nadia Schadlow examines how states from Russia to Iran exploit these vulnerabilities by outlasting adversaries, leveraging inexpensive systems, and weaponizing political pressure.

For the United States, this dynamic presents an acute strategic dilemma because current defense planning continues to prioritize short, decisive campaigns rather than enduring endurance contests. Without rebuilding industrial depth and aligning military means with attainable political goals, Washington risks remaining vulnerable to adversaries that systematically exploit attrition to erode American resolve.

Comment

Modern defence planning routinely underestimates how rapid technological counter-adaptation strips advanced platforms of their decisive advantage within weeks rather than years. When precision munitions and expensive systems are neutralised by algorithms and continuous battlefield observation, the operational calculus inevitably shifts toward industrial depth and material regeneration. Consequently, naval and air forces built around small numbers of exquisite platforms face severe sustainability strains when locked into protracted high-consumption exchanges.

Strategic Question for Discussion

How do defence planners reconcile the procurement of exquisite, low-density weapons platforms with the demands of an industrial base designed for peacetime production when facing a prolonged attrition conflict?

The available evidence points toward a growing structural mismatch between capital-intensive acquisition programs and the actual replenishment rates required during high-intensity conflict. My assessment is that defence planners will increasingly be forced to balance advanced technological capabilities with scalable, lower-cost mass production.

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