China’s Next Frontier

Foreign Affairs | Kathleen Curlee, Sam Bresnick

Writing in Foreign Affairs on 14 October 2026, Kathleen Curlee and Sam Bresnick of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology argue that China is catching up to the United States in space, both commercially and militarily. They open with a milestone: on 19 August, after LandSpace launched a rocket in northwestern China, its booster detached and landed back on Earth. This was the first land recovery by a Chinese firm, the authors report, and came six weeks after the country’s first-ever rocket recovery, carried out in the South China Sea by its premier state-owned space contractor.

They describe these events as the dawn of Chinese reusable launch, though the available extract breaks off before explaining what that capability will unlock. According to the article’s published abstract, this poses a threat to US military operations, which rely on space-based capabilities, and Washington must invest in space defence while reducing its reliance on the domain.

Comment

Recovering a booster is a necessary step towards reusable launch, but it is not the same thing. Reuse becomes strategically significant only when boosters are refurbished and reflown at low cost and at a regular cadence. The extract reports no such data, so claims that China has matched Falcon 9-class economics would be premature.

The two recoveries, one by a commercial firm and one by a state contractor, suggest more than one Chinese route to the capability. This is a cautious inference, since the extract does not describe either method. If sustained, it could reduce dependence on any single programme. Whether it speeds development is untested.

US operations depend on space-based assets. Cheaper, more frequent launch could allow faster constellation deployment and replenishment. That would matter most in the contested environments where space support is critical. This chain of reasoning is plausible but not demonstrated in the material available to us.

India has a comparable exposure. Its surveillance, navigation and communications support along the Line of Actual Control and across the Indian Ocean Region depends on satellites. If China can launch and replace satellites more cheaply and often, it gains a potential advantage in surge capacity, a factor that matters most in a prolonged crisis.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Do two successful booster recoveries, one commercial and one state-run, show that China is close to economical, routine reusable launch, or does a wide gap remain between recovery and rapid, low-cost reflight?

The evidence available here supports only a narrow conclusion: China has demonstrated recovery twice within six weeks. Optimists will read this as the start of a fast learning curve. Sceptics will point out that no reflight, turnaround or cost figures have been reported, and that sustained cadence and reliability are the real tests. The question cannot be settled yet. The next indicators to watch are first reflights, launch cadence and published pricing.

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