Exclusive: Ben-Gvir’s Plan to Push Netanyahu Right

TIME | ERIC CORTELLESSA

Itamar Ben-Gvir wants Israel’s Oct. 27 election to strengthen Otzma Yehudit’s leverage over Benjamin Netanyahu, not to replace him. The national security minister seeks the defence portfolio, fewer constraints on military operations, Palestinian “voluntary emigration” from Gaza and the West Bank, and Israeli sovereignty over both territories. His immediate target is coalition bargaining power.

Polls cited by TIME indicate a tight contest: an average of four recent surveys puts Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc at roughly 50 seats and the opposition at 53, short of the 61 Knesset seats needed to govern. The result could be another fragile coalition. Ben-Gvir proposes capturing all of Gaza, settling Israelis there and reversing Ariel Sharon’s 2005 withdrawal, which evacuated more than 8,000 settlers. In the West Bank, home to 3.3 million Palestinians, he seeks annexation, the removal of Palestinian Authority weapons and further emigration. The trajectory points toward harder-line coalition demands after the vote.

Comment

Ben-Gvir’s immediate objective is coalition leverage rather than the premiership. Greater Otzma Yehudit representation in the Knesset could convert a familiar kingmaker position into influence over ministerial appointments and policy. The defence ministry matters because it would place a politician with annexationist goals over the Israel Defense Forces, whose operations and rules of engagement lie outside his present national security remit.

The mechanism is conditionality. If Netanyahu’s bloc remains below the 61 seats required to govern, smaller hard-right factions gain bargaining power without needing a separate mandate for their maximalist programme. A defence portfolio could translate that leverage into decisions affecting operational constraints, settlement activity and the Palestinian Authority’s security role. Ben-Gvir’s demand to remove the Authority’s weapons would challenge an arrangement rooted in the 1993 Oslo Accords, under which its US-trained force has historically worked with Israel against militant attacks.

The 2005 disengagement provides the reference point. Ariel Sharon withdrew Israeli forces and evacuated more than 8,000 settlers from Gaza; Ben-Gvir proposes reversing that decision. Whether reversal becomes policy would depend on seat counts and coalition terms, not rhetorical ambition alone.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If Otzma Yehudit wins enough seats to make the defence ministry its price for coalition entry, which constraint would bind first: Netanyahu’s resistance, the Israel Defense Forces’ professional autonomy, or international opposition?

The pattern suggests the Israel Defense Forces’ professional autonomy would bind first, because a defence minister can direct policy but still depends on military leadership to translate orders into sustainable operations. Netanyahu’s resistance would shape whether the portfolio is conceded at all, while international opposition would raise the political cost of implementing annexation or large-scale displacement. My assessment is that coalition arithmetic could create the opening, but military and institutional friction would determine how far it is used.

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