Central Asia’s Financial Reliance on the PRC Grows

Jamestown Foundation | Vali Kaleji

Kazakhstan plans to borrow up to $2 billion from foreign markets in 2027 while focusing on China, according to Finance Minister Madi Takiyev. This projected borrowing highlights an expanding regional reliance on Beijing, evidenced by Kazakhstan's debt to the People's Republic of China reaching approximately $12.87 billion by the end of 2025.

Smaller economies in Central Asia face acute financial exposure due to heavy infrastructure borrowing and limited repayment capacity. Uzbekistan's public debt to PRC state financial institutions climbed to about $3.9 billion by the end of 2025, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan carry substantial sovereign and external liabilities. Kyrgyzstan incurred significant long-term obligations through a $2.35 billion PRC loan for the $4.7 billion China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Tajikistan owes between $821 million and $1.7 billion to PRC creditors, registering high debt-distress risks with the International Monetary Fund. Repayment difficulties across these states could compel asset transfers or concessions regarding natural resources and infrastructure rights to Chinese entities.

America Can Do Good—and Do Well

Foreign Affairs | Andrew Natsios

United States Agency for International Development programs prevented over 90 million deaths between 2001 and 2021 before the 2025 dismantling of the agency triggered more than 700,000 excess deaths within a single year. Research published in Science linked this termination to immediate surges in armed clashes, civil riots, and localized economic contraction.

The subsequent shift of foreign aid management to the State Department transferred $3.8 billion to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and $15.9 billion directly to foreign government treasuries. Over 90 percent of beneficiary governments face systemic corruption. Annual U.S. foreign aid disbursements fell by $26 billion between fiscal years 2023–24 and 2024–25, leaving $2.5 billion in allocated funds unspent by late 2026. This domestic structural vacuum expands operational opportunities for rival state actors. China is rapidly accelerating alternative development financing across the Global South while Russia expands security partnerships.

How Nvidia scandal, US midterm losses could affect Trump’s hand with Xi - and what it means for Beijing

Channel News Asia | Bong Xin Ying

United States President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen on Nov 18 and 19 amid domestic political setbacks. A fragile trade truce between the two economies runs until Jan 10, while disputes over tariffs, agricultural purchases, and technology remain unresolved.

Democrats have recently wrested control of both chambers of Congress, ending the president's ability to run China policy unilaterally. Meanwhile, allegations that Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang had an affair with a suspected Chinese spy have triggered congressional investigations and threats to his corporate position. Dexter Tiff Roberts of the Atlantic Council notes that Beijing likely views the American leader as a weaker partner who cannot make deals as before. Conversely, Drew Thompson of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies argues that congressional investigations will not constrain presidential foreign negotiation powers. Lim Tai Wei of Soka University suggests incoming Democratic majorities will focus instead on domestic bread-and-butter issues ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Xu Qinduo of the Pangoal Institution states that Beijing views the corporate controversy as an American domestic matter. The ongoing convergence of domestic political pressure and corporate investigations complicates the strategic landscape ahead of the upcoming summit.

To Revive American Manufacturing, America Should Learn From China

National Interest | Staff Writer

The United States must combine defensive trade barriers with an affirmative industrial strategy to reverse its manufacturing decline. Industrial capacity underpins national power, yet high tariffs have cost thousands of jobs without spurring a domestic production renaissance. American leadership should adapt Beijing's historical playbook by inviting qualified enterprises to establish joint ventures on American soil.

Such partnerships must ensure American majority ownership, workforce training, and domestic supply chain development. Washington can leverage China's current industrial overcapacity to acquire proven technologies while strictly guarding critical national security systems. Rigorous cybersecurity audits, ownership vetting, and legal punishments for espionage can separate economic cooperation from strategic vulnerability. Ultimately, leveraging domestic market access under strict security controls offers a faster path to national industrial revival.

A Recipe for Disaster in Taiwan

Foreign Affairs | Rebecca Lissner, Mira Rapp-Hooper

United States President Donald Trump described Taiwan as a negotiating chip in dealings with Beijing, signaling a shift in American willingness to loosen commitments to the island. Beijing is actively developing strategies to coerce Taiwan without direct warfare, relying on diplomatic channels and military pressure tactics such as blockades and quarantine simulations.

Washington cannot afford to distance itself from Taipei because Taiwan produces 97 percent of the global supply of high-end logic chips essential for artificial intelligence and advanced technology industries. A Chinese blockade would imperil more than $250 billion in bilateral trade, threaten trillions in global economic losses, and induce a severe contraction across major U.S. technology firms. Public opinion polls show declining American support for deploying troops if an invasion occurs, while bipartisan political backing for long-standing defense ties shows strain. Washington must urgently update its strategic posture to deter escalation before Chinese leadership miscalculates the permanence of the U.S. commitment.

In China’s Spy Operations, Romance Can Be a Long Game

The New York Times | Lily Kuo

Jensen Huang resigned as chief executive of Nvidia following revelations of an intimate relationship with Alice Huang, a Singapore-based businesswoman accused by American officials of gathering intelligence for China's Ministry of State Security. Her company operated data infrastructure in Southeast Asia using high-performance Nvidia hardware to rent advanced computing capacity to commercial firms inside mainland China.

China's intelligence apparatus has systematically deployed strategic romantic entanglements despite pledges delivered in April 1960 by Central Investigation Department leader Kong Yuan ruling out seduction tactics. Beijing denied the espionage claims. Former senior American intelligence officer Nicholas Eftimiades noted that Chinese operational doctrine relies on multi-year cultivation timelines rather than the rapid seduction methods used by East German Stasi agents or Soviet blackmail networks. President Trump stated that Huang disclaimed knowledge of the espionage links, while Washington has provided no public evidence verifying the agency's operational recruitment.

Central Asia’s Financial Reliance on the PRC Grows

Jamestown Foundation | Vali Kaleji

Kazakh Finance Minister Madi Takiyev stated in October that Kazakhstan plans to borrow up to $2 billion from foreign markets in 2027 while focusing on China. Total Kazakh debt to the People's Republic of China reached approximately $12.87 billion by the end of 2025, supported by instruments such as $1.5 billion in Panda bonds issued at a 1.82 percent rate.

This borrowing reflects broader regional integration patterns where Uzbekistan's debt to Chinese state financial institutions hit approximately $3.9 billion by the end of 2025. Smaller economies such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan face elevated debt-distress risks while pursuing large-scale initiatives including the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Underperforming infrastructure projects or declining export revenues threaten to overwhelm repayment capacities across these borrowing nations. Such financial strains create structural conditions for strategic asset transfers or collateral swaps under long-term loan agreements. Beijing continues expanding its financial leverage throughout Central Asia through diversified lending mechanisms involving institutions like China Exim Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

The Experts Are Taking Their Revenge Again

Foreign Policy | David Milne

United States President Donald Trump admitted that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran initiated in February contributed to Republican midterm losses. Energy prices surged following the intervention, while voters punished the incumbent party for economic fallout resulting from the operation. CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned that while airstrikes could target leadership, regime change was unlikely, but the administration proceeded with Operation Epic Fury despite intelligence skepticism.

Similar intelligence marginalization occurred prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution during the Vietnam War. Architects such as Paul Wolfowitz and Walt Rostow discounted intelligence warnings based on ideological certainty. President Trump defended the decision to launch strikes, stating he would repeat the action despite the political cost.

The True Believer

Persuasion | Damon Linker

President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Stephen Miller will replace Susie Wiles as White House Chief of Staff following the 2026 midterm elections. The appointment signals an assertive executive posture even as Democratic congressional majorities take office on January 3, 2027. Miller previously served as Homeland Security Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy while advancing strict anti-immigration policies across the administration.

Executive authority remains central to his doctrine. His broad policy platform includes supporting protective tariffs, backing Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and proposing the suspension of habeas corpus under Article I of the Constitution. Miller also urged invoking the Insurrection Act to deploy federal troops following the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti during Minneapolis protests. Though White House lawyer Will Scharf previously authored a confidential memo opposing habeas corpus suspension, Miller's structural elevation leaves further testing of executive emergency powers likely.

Autonomy and Combined Arms Maneuver: The Elements Remain, but How We Deliver Them Is Changing Forever

Modern War Institute | James Mingus

Agentic artificial intelligence is restructuring combined arms maneuver by moving beyond individual decision-support tools toward dynamic system orchestration across joint force formations. Retired General James Mingus identifies this shift as a transformation from human-controlled platforms to human-directed command operating alongside machine execution. This command architecture enables geographically dispersed forces to achieve mass without physical concentration, delivering fires, electronic warfare, and intelligence at machine speed.

By replacing individual platform dominance with networked force integration, autonomous systems continuously adapt and reorganize across air, land, and sea domains. The evolution preserves core combined arms principles while transferring tactical execution to heterogeneous robotic swarms operating under explicit intent boundaries. Human authority retains responsibility for lethal decisions, yet force effectiveness will increasingly depend on the speed and coherence of the broader fighting ecosystem. Consequently, military modernization must pivot from acquiring exquisite standalone platforms toward building command architectures that seamlessly link sensors, platforms, and human commanders.

The Warrior Is Not the War: How America Is Unlearning the Meaning of Victory

Compound Security, Unlocked | Isaiah Wilson III

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced thirty-three directives to overhaul professional military education at the Naval War College around the concept of winning. Retired U.S. Army Colonel Isaiah Wilson III argues that this reform risks narrowing the military's understanding of strategy by confusing tactical lethality with political effectiveness. Drawing on his thirty-three years of service, including combat deployments in Iraq where he served as chief of plans with the 101st Airborne Division, Wilson contends that military force frequently spends political power rather than generating it.

The critique challenges the demotion of civilian faculty, the reduction of traditional research in favor of AI-assisted wargames, and the growing disconnect between military means and political ends. Wilson emphasizes that professional military education must prioritize rigorous strategic judgment over simulated decision speed to ensure armed forces serve coherent political objectives.

Trump Is Facing a Very Different North Korea

Foreign Affairs | Stephen E. Biegun, Emma Chanlett-Avery

US President Donald Trump announced on August 17 via Truth Social that Washington would scale back joint military exercises with South Korea. The decision directly modifies combined readiness operations between American and South Korean military forces on the peninsula. Trump attributed the strategic shift to direct communications and a positive relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whom he described as respectful and unthreatening.

Former Special Representative for North Korea Stephen E. Biegun and Asia Society analyst Emma Chanlett-Avery examine the implications of restarting presidential diplomacy with Pyongyang. Reductions in military drills reflect a deliberate effort by the White House to clear obstacles for top-level summitry. Diplomatic engagement remains a chief priority. Trump intends to pursue renewed negotiations with Kim to shape his foreign policy legacy while navigating ongoing international conflicts. Adjusting combined training schedules signals a major alteration in Washington's operational posture across the region.

The Pentagon Is Getting an ‘Octagon’ in Alabama

National Interest | Peter Suciu

US Space Command commander General Stephen Whiting confirmed the Department of Defense combatant command is accelerating its relocation to the Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama. Over 200 personnel are currently operating out of temporary facilities in Alabama, with staffing projected to reach 900 by 2028 and 1,800 upon completion of a new $85 million purpose-built headquarters by late 2031 or early 2032.

The eight-sided facility will co-locate all personnel to consolidate real-time space domain data processing and multi-domain operations under a single joint operations center. Previously, the command operated across four separate buildings at Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado Springs. Colorado state lawsuits failed to halt the transfer. Peterson and Schriever Space Force Bases will retain critical tracking functions alongside Golden Dome homeland missile defense collaboration. Whiting will retire in January 2027, passing leadership to Lieutenant General David Miller to oversee the military transition.

The new Congress has good reason to oppose the Iran War, but it would undercut chances of a favorable peace deal with Iran if it refused to pay for the war.

National Interest | Lawrence J. Haas

United States naval forces and Israeli strikes have severely degraded Iran's military capacity, yet active exchanges persist while Washington blockades Iranian ports and Tehran targets commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues rebuilding its ballistic missile production—long-range guided rocket systems—and seeking to restart nuclear material enrichment while funding Hezbollah's recovery.

This ongoing war has cost $50 billion to date, with the administration requesting an additional $67 billion from Congress. However, the incoming Democratic congressional majority aims to terminate war funding following midterm election backlash over rising domestic fuel prices. A funding cutoff risks lifting the naval blockade, which currently wreaks havoc on Iran's economy by halting oil exports and driving the rial to record lows. Such a withdrawal could signal weakening resolve to adversaries in Moscow and Beijing. Funding cuts carry global risks. Maintaining the economic embargo remains critical to preserving leverage for negotiated settlements regarding nuclear proliferation.

Russia’s Cheapest Weapon in Its Hybrid War Is Fear

Foreign Policy | Beniamino Irdi

On Nov. 11, 2026, coordinated hoax bomb threats signed by a pseudonym targeted 6,000 Italian schools alongside 300 facilities in Northern Ireland, forcing mass evacuations and prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to convene emergency security meetings. The campaign followed similar false alarms between Nov. 3 and Nov.

6 that disrupted 35 European passenger flights, triggering fighter jet scrambles in France, Italy, and Bulgaria. These low-cost psychological operations exploit safety protocols to impose severe operational burdens on civilian infrastructure. No physical explosive devices were found. European intelligence officials trace the pattern toward Russia based on operational precedent and motive, though senders obscured their digital origins using spoofed addresses linked to Colombia and Iran. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto warned these tactics will multiply. European states require rapid information sharing and deterrence operating on probabilistic intelligence evidence rather than court-level attribution.

The Infrastructure of Dependence: Starlink, Knowledge, and Sovereignty

Small Wars Journal | Yilma Makonnen

Ukrainian forces in October 2026 encountered operational constraints when Starlink connectivity was restricted for drones traveling above 100 miles per hour. SpaceX later restored speeds exceeding 400 kilometers per hour, but the incident highlighted external control over military networks. Traditional International Relations theories struggle to explain this digital asymmetry, prompting alternative frameworks like epistemic delegation and Foucault's relational power.

Starlink's software-defined parameters shape battlefield knowledge and operational boundaries without direct coercion. This reliance creates structural vulnerabilities that traditional physical security models fail to capture. Future conflicts will increasingly depend on proprietary digital infrastructure controlled by private corporate entities rather than sovereign states.

The Paradox of Dollar Dominance

Foreign Affairs | Gordon Liao, Eswar Prasad, Tony Zhang

Digital financial innovations and blockchain tokenisation are reshaping international currency exchange, yet these technological developments are paradoxically solidifying the dominance of the United States dollar rather than eroding it. Emerging payment networks and tokenised financial assets initially enabled foreign central banks and commercial entities to bypass dollar-denominated clearing systems.

However, market adoption of digital assets created a turning point that reinforced existing monetary hierarchies. Stablecoins now exceed $250 billion in circulation. Crucially, over 99 percent of that total value remains pegged directly to the dollar and backed by United States Treasury securities. Although the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves dropped from 71 percent in 2000 to 57 percent today, alternative reserve currencies remain fragmented. The euro holds only 13 percent of non-eurozone cross-border payments, while the Chinese renminbi accounts for under 3 percent. Consequently, technological integration lowers transaction costs while entrenching American currency hegemony by default.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tied Israel and its interests to US partisan politics. Eisenkot has the chance to undo that mistake.

The National Interest | Joe Zacks

Gadi Eisenkot has been charged with forming a new Israeli coalition government following recent national elections, presenting an opportunity to recalibrate diplomatic relations with the United States. Israel faces growing public and political polarisation in Washington after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu closely aligned his government's strategic posture with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Partisan alignment carries severe long-term strategic risks. Repairing ties with the Democratic Party and restoring bipartisan support among the American public will require substantive policy shifts regarding governance and relations with Palestinian communities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Since 7 October 2023, Israel's sustained military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran have dismantled elements of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance but damaged its standing with younger American voters. Israeli decision-makers now face the dual challenge of preserving essential security guarantees while reconstructing broad international political backing.

Billions lost and markets roiled by one man’s indiscretion. Isn’t it now clear that these tech bros are too powerful?

The Guardian | Aditya Chakrabortty

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faced intense scrutiny after an extramarital affair with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy wiped over $400bn off the valuation of his company in just two days. The scandal exposed systemic vulnerabilities in foundational artificial intelligence infrastructure and triggered urgent questions regarding corporate governance, executive impunity, and national security risks.

Nvidia produces graphics-processing units that function as essential infrastructure for artificial intelligence development, maintaining a dominant market position that has repeatedly eluded stringent regulatory enforcement despite previous export control concerns involving intermediaries near Kuala Lumpur. Political leaders in Washington and London continued to shield Huang despite warnings delivered aboard Air Force One, illustrating the profound dependency of Western states on monopolistic technology executives. Market roiling from executive misconduct highlights the fragility of the broader technology sector as public backlash mounts against concentrated corporate power.

Organisational Evolution and Strategic Adaptation: Restructuring Military Forces for Unmanned Warfare

Futura Doctrina | Oleksandra Molloy

Ukraine's Armed Forces established the dedicated Unmanned Systems Forces to institutionalise specialist drone expertise across operational echelons and counter rising battlefield attrition. This strategic restructuring addresses compressed decision-making cycles caused by persistent aerial surveillance, accelerated sensor-to-shooter loops, and aggressive electromagnetic spectrum competition. Conventional single-domain military branches frequently treat uncrewed and autonomous platforms as supplementary add-ons rather than structural warfighting elements.

Adaptation speed supersedes individual platform hardware. Continuous feedback loops between combat operators, developers, and domestic industrial manufacturers shorten the timeline between frontline problem identification and field deployment. Institutional initiatives including the reported US Army Futures and Autonomous Systems Command and NATO's Future Force Study highlight global efforts to integrate these empirical observations into future force design. Maintaining combat effectiveness under high attrition demands balancing high-cost platforms with affordable mass, resilient command architectures, and sustained production capacity across land, air, and maritime services.

Sarajevo and Vukovar to Kharkiv and Mariupol: The Evolution of Urbicide in Modern Warfare

Small Wars Journal | Harrison Budak

Russian forces in Kharkiv and Mariupol have transformed urbicide from prolonged artillery sieges into rapid aerial bombardment using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and weaponized commercial drones. This modern application erases post-independence infrastructure, housing blocks, and transport nodes to render cities unlivable and clear territory for Russification. In contrast, the 1992–1995 siege of Sarajevo relied on ground encirclement, mortars, and small-arms fire by Bosnian Serb and Yugoslav forces.

That earlier campaign targeted symbols of multi-ethnic coexistence, destroying the Vijećnica national library and 1.5 million books. Modern urban warfare now bypasses drawn-out infantry encirclement. Instead, integrated long-range strike packages systematically collapse civic utility networks to enforce strategic dominance over non-combatant spaces. Destruction shifts from selective cultural identity erasure to total spatial annihilation. High-tempo drone and missile salvos compress operational timelines, dismantling defense options for fortified urban positions while preparing targeted urban terrain for post-conflict administrative restructuring.

AI could help make new vaccines. Will people take them?

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | Ben Rader

Artificial intelligence innovations in biodefense risk prioritizing technical speed over public trust during biological crises. While philanthropic organizations and companies like OpenAI and Meta direct substantial compute and capital toward rapid pathogen detection and countermeasure design, medical countermeasures fail if populations reject them. Historical vaccine rollouts demonstrate that novelty carries a penalty and public confidence erodes easily when speed outpaces transparent evidence.

Accelerated deployment timelines driven by synthetic biology can widen the gap between scientific capability and social acceptance. Unless biodefense funders channel resources into behavioral science and institutional credibility alongside technical development, future AI-driven therapeutics will face severe public resistance during deployments.

How Jensen Huang’s Nvidia Is Powering the AI Revolution

New Yorker | Rivka Galchen

Nvidia experienced one of the largest single-day market gains in history after the revelation that ChatGPT was trained on its supercomputer. Jensen Huang founded Nvidia in 1993 at a Denny's restaurant in San Jose, California, alongside Chris Malachowsky and Curtis Priem. After selling graphics-processing units to video gamers for years, Huang shifted the company's focus to artificial intelligence in 2013.

Nvidia's microchips now serve as the core infrastructure for deep learning, a methodology that is fundamentally transforming software development. Huang's personal stake in the company has surpassed forty billion dollars following a massive surge in corporate demand. Nvidia overcame early near-bankruptcies caused by architectural miscalculations through high-stakes manufacturing gambles and severe layoffs. Today, the corporation operates out of triangle-shaped headquarters in Santa Clara, California, where advanced microchips are tested under extreme conditions. Huang remains confident in the technology's trajectory despite widespread societal concerns regarding the future of autonomous systems.

The Strait That Could Break the Pacific: The Interconnected Crisis No One Is Naming

Small Wars Journal | Sandra Roshonda Thomas

United States military planners now designate the Indo-Pacific theatre as the US Pacific Command region, where systemic vulnerabilities are exposing critical supply chain dependencies. Commercial shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten global trade as 500 merchant vessels remain stranded, leaving 6,000 seafarers trapped and preventing vital energy supplies from reaching Asian markets.

Economic shocks ripple outward because close to 90 percent of crude oil passing through the Middle Eastern chokepoint is destined for Asia. Regional trade networks stretching from Iran through Asian highways and European rail corridors experience cascading failures as manufacturing and agricultural costs surge. Gulf Cooperation Council partners alongside nations like Japan, the Philippines, Maldives, and Pacific Island economies outsource over 50 percent of their crude oil imports. Center for Security and International Studies analyst Mark Cancian disputes the efficacy of current naval deployments, noting that commercial insurers and shipping operators determine vessel movement rather than military commands. International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez warns that stranded vessels threaten 90 percent of global goods transport. Wargaming models developed by the Center for Security and International Studies and Thomas Strategy Consulting illustrate how concurrent maritime chokepoint closures amplify geopolitical risk across littoral flashpoints. Societal resilience depends directly on equitable economic distribution, as domestic income inequality erodes public willingness to sustain prolonged conflict.

THE ENDURING NATURE OF INTELLIGENCE

War Room | Michael Elieson

Michael Elieson examines how the fundamental character of intelligence remains anchored to human agency and decision advantage despite technological evolution. Tracing historical snapshots from biblical accounts to the Office of Strategic Services and World War II, the analysis identifies five enduring dictums governing espionage and operational security. Intelligence functions as secret information with a specific purpose, requiring harmonic coordination between customers, analysts, and collectors.

While human emotion, deception, and chance continually disrupt planning, decisionmakers must act amid irreducible uncertainty rather than waiting for perfect clarity. Counterintelligence operations, such as George Washington's bread-oven ruse in 1781, demonstrate that effective deception can overcome concrete military disadvantages. Ultimately, intelligence professionals provide the critical edge needed to navigate adversarial environments and protect state interests.