Majid Rafizadeh
The regime has learned that sanctions are only as effective as their implementation. Over time, the regime has institutionalized sanctions evasion, embedding it into state policy and delegating it to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated economic networks. This has turned evasion from an improvised response into a permanent survival machine.
Iran's continued oil exports depend on countries that are prepared to ignore sanctions, interpret them loosely, or exploit enforcement gaps. The central role in this system is played by China, which purchases large volumes of discounted Iranian oil, assuring China of a steady flow of oil and Iran of a steady flow of cash. So long as demand exists, Iran will try to find ways to supply it.
Grounding Iranian airlines would sever a key logistical lifeline for sanctions evasion and regional influence. This requires sanctioning not only Iranian carriers but also foreign companies and governments that provide aircraft parts, maintenance, insurance, fuel, and airport services. Without these inputs, Iran's aviation network cannot function.
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