The US-Iran crisis has seen bewildering developments regarding peace talks, with Donald Trump initially considering military strikes before announcing an imminent agreement, a sentiment echoed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, Iranian leaders quickly tempered optimism, highlighting significant disputes and outlining a two-phase deal. Phase one involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, including Lebanon, the
strait of Hormuz opening without tolls, and the US lifting its naval blockade, unfreezing Iranian assets, and easing economic sanctions. This phase faces obstacles from Israel, which seeks to maintain its freedom of action in Lebanon, and Iran's May 18 unveiling of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to levy tolls. The US and Israel also demand Iran reduce ballistic missiles and cease support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah (Houthis), points Iran has not addressed. Phase two focuses on Iran's nuclear program, with the US demanding the removal of Iran's entire enriched uranium stockpile, a demand Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly rejected, though downblending is a potential compromise. Optimists view Iran's stance as an opening bid, while pessimists fear the ceasefire could unravel if Trump resumes military action or Israel attacks, especially given the $29bn spent on the failed war.
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