President Donald Trump announced the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end the war initiated by the U.S. and Israel in late February, which has killed thousands in Iran and Lebanon. This potential agreement, involving Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S.
ending its blockade and Iran relinquishing highly enriched uranium, is characterized by expert Danny Citrinowicz as a humiliating strategic failure for the U.S. and Israel. The conflict inadvertently strengthened Iranian hard-liners and demonstrated Iran's significant leverage over the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz. Citrinowicz argues that Trump's 2015 nuclear deal withdrawal was a major blunder, weakening Iranian moderates. The war failed to achieve regime change or permanently degrade Iran's missile capacity, which can be rebuilt in four to six months. Furthermore, Iran is unlikely to compromise on its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, posing a significant challenge for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The deal is viewed as a temporary measure, with Iran unlikely to dismantle its nuclear facilities.
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