The India-Pakistan rivalry has been fundamentally altered by the rapid spread of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), shifting competition from manned airpower to cheap precision, constant surveillance, deniable force, and escalation ambiguity along the Line of Control (LOC). The May 2025 crisis saw both states employ drones at unprecedented scale for probing air defenses,
striking sensitive installations, and strategic signaling, qualitatively escalating their use beyond surveillance to coercive tools that altered the escalation ladder. Drones lower the threshold for force, obscure attribution, and compress decision-making timelines, intensifying miscalculation risks in South Asia's nuclearized environment. Pakistan leverages quick adaptation, flexible procurement process, and partnerships with Turkey and China for its drone ecosystem, emphasizing modularity and improvisation. India focuses on high-end ISR platforms, imports like the MQ-9B Sky/Sea Guardian, and domestic programs such as the Ghatak UCAV, prioritizing layered air defense. Emerging autonomous UAVs with anti-radiation seekers and miniaturized payloads will further heighten escalation risks, especially near sensitive sites. Both nations face a cost asymmetry, reinforcing a destabilizing arms race.
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