Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on May 15 that Russia aims to draw Belarus deeper into the war, potentially planning operations from Belarusian territory against Ukraine or a NATO member state. Ukrainian intelligence indicates ongoing negotiations and operational plans targeting Ukraine's Chernihiv–Kyiv axis or a NATO state, a threat AFU Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi deems credible.
Ukraine assesses five scenarios for expanding the war through northern Ukraine, with establishing a 10-20 km buffer zone in Chernihiv oblast most credible, though no offensive is expected before autumn. Kyiv is reinforcing northern border defenses and signaled it would strike military targets in Belarus if its territory is used for new attacks. Indicators of potential Russian-Belarusian preparations include continuous deployment of four Belarusian battalions (1,900 troops) near the border, expansion of logistics routes and training ranges, and use of Belarusian airspace for Russian drone operations. Russia and Belarus are completing military infrastructure programs and planning joint strategic exercises like _Schit Soyuza-2027_, which could mask troop concentrations, echoing _Souznaya Reshimost-2022_.
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