America’s Iran Failure Is Bigger Than Trump

The Nation  |  Sina Toossi, Nancy Okail

The Trump administration has resumed military strikes against Iranian infrastructure, including the Darkhovin nuclear power site, following the deaths of three US service members in Jordan and the Persian Gulf. This rapid return to conflict, which has claimed 17 American lives, marks a collapse of recent diplomatic efforts and threatens to trigger an all-out regional war.

Decades of bipartisan reliance on economic and military coercion have systematically empowered hard-line security factions within Tehran while marginalising moderate political voices advocating for diplomatic engagement. This institutional dependency on pressure campaigns has insulated Washington from learning from past strategic failures, such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq, while the concentration of foreign policy decisions in informal envoys bypasses traditional accountability. Consequently, the US Congress is increasingly challenging executive war powers, with Senate Democrats blocking the National Defense Authorization Act to force constitutional oversight as the administration seeks to dismantle external accountability mechanisms like the International Criminal Court.

Comment

The collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action demonstrated the inherent vulnerability of executive-led agreements lacking legislative treaty status in the United States. This structural deficit prevents Washington from establishing credible commitment devices. Consequently, Tehran's security establishment increasingly views tactical compliance as a liability, reinforcing a defensive doctrine centred on asymmetric deterrence. The resulting kinetic retaliation in the Persian Gulf exposes the limits of coercive diplomacy when decoupled from legally binding reciprocal concessions.

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