The Coming Clash Between China and Europe: Why a Trade War Can’t Be Avoided

Foreign Affairs | Thorsten Benner

The EU is preparing defensive trade measures to counter a massive surge of heavily subsidized Chinese industrial exports that threatens to devastate Europe's core manufacturing sectors. This impending economic shock, driven by China's state-backed overcapacity and undervalued currency, risks destroying hundreds of thousands of advanced industrial jobs across the continent.

Decades of European complacency and a soaring 411 billion dollar trade deficit have left key sectors like automotive, chemicals, and green energy highly vulnerable. To blunt this onslaught, the European Commission is exploring coordinated tariffs and decentralized regulatory "swarm" tactics, including product-safety audits and subsidy investigations. Success requires maintaining internal solidarity against Chinese economic coercion while forging a unified defensive front with global partners, including a potentially reluctant Trump administration. Ultimately, preserving Europe's industrial base is essential to prevent political vassalage and sustain the continent's critical long-term rearmament and security goals.

Comment

European ammunition production depends heavily on Chinese raw materials. Beijing controls seventy percent of the global supply of cotton linters for nitrocellulose. This supply chain bottleneck directly threatens the NATO Defence Production Action Plan. Trade retaliation will immediately freeze European artillery shell manufacturing lines.

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