The Sahel is on Fire. The West is Watching from Afar.

RealClearWorld  |  Megan Dunlop

Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and Islamic State militants are rapidly expanding southward from Mali toward the Gulf of Guinea coastline. This security crisis intensified after France ended Operation Barkhane in August 2022, dismantling the primary Western counterterrorism architecture and leaving a vacuum that threatens coastal West African states.

Subsequent military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger led to the expulsion of Western forces and the introduction of Russia's Wagner/ Africa Corps. These Russian mercenaries focus on resource extraction rather than containment, leaving the region highly vulnerable. Meanwhile, Western powers have defaulted to fragmented bilateral agreements instead of a unified multilateral strategy. To arrest this transnational threat, Western governments must properly resource the Accra Initiative and invest early in coastal state institutions. Additionally, the United Kingdom should leverage its Commonwealth architecture to build a coordinated regional counterterrorism framework before the security window closes entirely.

Comment

The loss of Air Base 201 in Agadez severely degrades regional signals intelligence collection. Coastal states now lack the airborne surveillance assets to intercept tactical insurgent communications. This intelligence vacuum prevents effective cross-border interdiction operations along the Gulf of Guinea. Regional forces must rapidly deploy mobile electronic warfare units to counter this operational deficit.

To read in details click here