Iran and the New Rules of Global Power: The Making and Unmaking of American Dominance

Foreign Affairs | Robert A. Pape

The United States military faces unprecedented operational limitations in the Strait of Hormuz as cheaper precision technologies democratise warfare and dismantle the legacy of American dominance established during the 1991 Gulf War. This technological shift allows weaker state and non-state actors to impose immense costs on global commerce and challenge Western maritime security.

Historically, the rapid defeat of Iraq's massive army in Operation Desert Storm fostered global confidence in Washington's ability to secure trade routes and deter adversaries effortlessly. However, decades of globalization have commoditized advanced semiconductors, GPS receivers, and artificial intelligence, enabling the assembly of effective precision weapons like the Iranian Shahed-136 drone from cheap, civilian components. Consequently, the international order faces heightened volatility, escalating protection costs for maritime trade, and frequent crises as the strategic barriers that once protected the global supply chain collapse. This transition marks a shift toward a more dangerous era of intense competition over the world's strategic chokepoints.

Comment

The integration of consumer-grade GPS receivers and civilian-market processors in the Shahed-136 loitering munition demonstrates how commercial supply chains have permanently broken the state monopoly on precision-guided warfare. This shift bypasses traditional export control regimes like the Missile Technology Control Regime, which were designed to restrict high-end military-grade components rather than dual-use consumer electronics. Consequently, middle powers can now field mass-produced precision strike capabilities at a fraction of the cost of Western countermeasures like the Patriot air defence system. The resulting cost asymmetry fundamentally alters the economics of attrition in modern maritime and littoral choke points.

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