How to End the Iran War

Foreign Policy | Allison Minor and Nate Swanson

U.S. President Donald Trump faces critical diplomatic challenges in managing the conflict with Iran during his second presidential term. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has raised urgent questions regarding whether the United States military is actively preparing for a ground invasion of Iran. This volatile environment forces U.S.

foreign policy to confront the economic and strategic realities of managing multiple global crises, particularly as the administration seeks to negotiate a durable ceasefire. Concurrently, questions persist over which international entities are financially benefiting from the ongoing warfare, complicating efforts to establish regional peace. These regional dynamics unfold alongside other major global pressures, including the war in Ukraine, intense U.S.-China competition, and the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence. Ultimately, resolving the confrontation and establishing a stable ceasefire remains a central focus of U.S. foreign policy as decision-makers weigh the strategic trade-offs of military action versus diplomatic engagement.

Comment

The persistent friction between Washington and Tehran exposes the limits of the Carter Doctrine in an era of multi-theatre peer competition. Committing substantial naval assets to secure the Strait of Hormuz directly detracts from the Pentagon's ability to resource the Indo-Pacific Command against Chinese expansionism. This resource diversion reveals a stark trade-off where regional containment of Iran compromises the broader maritime deterrence posture required in the Western Pacific. Consequently, any protracted escalation in the Persian Gulf forces a dilution of global deployment schedules that benefits competing great powers.

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