Will Iran Turn Into a Forever War?

Council on Foreign Relations

President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran in February 2026, initiating a cycle of military escalation that risks becoming an uncontrollable forever war. Following the targeted killings of several Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the reconstituted theocratic regime retaliated by disrupting maritime traffic in the critical Persian Gulf waterway.

This escalatory dynamic mirrors the flawed incremental military pressure strategies employed during the Vietnam War, which historically failed to account for an adversary's capacity to absorb punishment. Despite severe domestic inflation, power outages, and food shortages, the Iranian leadership views the conflict in existential terms, giving them a greater incentive to endure economic and physical devastation than a distant superpower. As the United States threatens to bomb critical infrastructure for any further shipping disruptions, the U.S. Navy will likely bear the disproportionate burden of securing the Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating regional strikes.

Comment

The escalation in the Persian Gulf exposes the limitations of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in maintaining sea control against asymmetric swarm tactics and land-based anti-ship cruise missiles. Unlike the localised engagements of Operation Praying Mantis in 1988, modern Iranian defensive doctrine relies on decentralised command structures that resist decapitation strikes. Consequently, attempts to enforce freedom of navigation through incremental retaliation fail to deter a highly distributed adversary prepared to absorb infrastructure damage. This mismatch reveals that conventional deterrence models struggle when an adversary values regional denial over its own economic survival.