The Battle for Hormuz Will Reshape the Global LNG Market

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Leslie Palti-Guzman

The collapse of the June 17, 2026 U.S.-Iran MOU has escalated maritime instability in the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. Central Command enforces Operation Project Freedom to protect commercial tankers against sustained attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iranian missile and drone strikes against energy infrastructure have forced over 25 energy companies across the Gulf Cooperation Council to declare force majeure.

Structural vulnerabilities differ across the region; while Saudi Arabia utilizes its East-West Pipeline and the United Arab Emirates accesses the Fujairah export terminal, Qatar remains severely constrained by its total dependency on the waterway. Strait of Hormuz crossings dropped 70 percent following renewed hostilities, threatening Qatari exports of 2.8 million tons per month and driving U.S. gasoline prices past $4 per gallon. Tehran’s strategy leverages proxy forces in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon alongside Chinese and Russian support to divide Gulf states, leaving regional economies facing prolonged economic attrition, renewed full-scale conflict, or remote diplomatic resolution options.

Comment

The operational footprint of Operation Project Freedom demonstrates the heavy tactical burden of defending non-contiguous merchant shipping corridors against asymmetric littoral threats. By relying on armed escorts along the Omani coast rather than neutralising hardened IRGC subterranean launch sites, military forces absorb a high ratio of defensive interceptor consumption per transit. This persistent escort requirement severely restricts surface fleet availability for broader theater deterrence in the Western Indian Ocean. Consequently, maritime security along the Omani corridor remains directly contingent on continuous, high-density naval deployments that strain organic logistical supply lines.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor will dictate the sustainability of the Omani corridor first — the depletion rate of surface fleet defensive interceptors during Operation Project Freedom, or the IRGC's ability to maintain targeting feedback from subterranean launch sites?

Share your assessment in the comments below.

To read in details click here