From Yanbu to Sohar: Tracking Saudi Arabia’s alternative oil routes

Al Jazeera | Hanna Duggal

Saudi Arabia is rerouting its crude oil exports through dark shipments and ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar, Oman, following drone attacks that disabled the kingdom's East-West pipeline. This disruption halted 4 to 5 million barrels per day of oil flow, forcing the world's second-largest producer to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz and hostile Red Sea routes.

Historically, the 1,200-kilometre pipeline served as a critical bypass to mitigate maritime vulnerabilities during regional conflicts. With Houthi forces controlling the Bab al-Mandeb strait and enforcing a maritime embargo, alternative southern routes remain blocked. Consequently, exporters must rely on costly northern transits through the Suez Canal or deplete stored volumes at Egypt's Sumed Pipeline terminals. Shipping costs have surged. Brent crude prices subsequently climbed above $105 a barrel. To offset these losses, Aramco is offering additional loadings to Asian refiners out of Oman while attempting a phased restart of its damaged pipeline.

Comment

The disabling of the East-West pipeline exposes the severe logistical limits of Saudi Arabia's overland redundancy. While the Yanbu terminal was constructed to bypass maritime chokepoints, its vulnerability to drone strikes forces a reliance on complex ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar. This shift to maritime shuttling increases transit times and strains the availability of Suezmax tankers. Consequently, the logistical burden shifts from the secure Ghawar-to-Yanbu pipeline corridor to vulnerable, high-cost maritime routes transiting the Gulf of Oman.

This logistical bottleneck directly impacts European refiners dependent on the Sumed Pipeline, as depleted storage at Ain Sokhna cannot be easily replenished. Furthermore, the necessity of routing VLCCs around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Asian markets ties up global shipping capacity for extended periods. Ultimately, these prolonged voyages inflate freight insurance premiums across the entire Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea transit zones.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the disruption of the East-West pipeline persists beyond the estimated five weeks, how will the reliance on ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar affect the long-term charter rates and availability of Suezmax tankers in the Middle East Gulf?

The prolonged reliance on Sohar for ship-to-ship transfers is likely to cannibalise the regional supply of Suezmax vessels, driving charter rates higher as tankers are locked into short-haul shuttle runs. This pattern suggests that Asian refiners will face both increased delivery delays and inflated freight premiums, forcing a shift toward Atlantic Basin crudes. Consequently, the operational flexibility of the Middle Eastern tanker fleet will remain severely constrained until the pipeline's throughput is restored.

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