Oil Might Be Flowing Through the Strait of Hormuz, But for All the Wrong Reasons

19FortyFive | Michael Rubin

Saudi crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to 13.1 million barrels per day, reaching 77 percent of pre-war levels despite ongoing regional hostilities. However, this maritime resumption reflects Riyadh appeasing adversaries rather than the efficacy of United States naval blockades against Iran. Oil flows through the southern Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint have halved to 2.53 million barrels per day following Houthi seizures of Mokha and Perim Island.

Tehran also continues circumventing sanctions via the Caspian Sea alongside land routes through Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Turkmenistan. Saudi Arabia previously diverted 7 million barrels daily across the East-West Petroline, loading 5 million barrels per day at the Port of Yanbu. Now, Saudi tankers navigate Houthi-imperiled waters toward China instead of serving European markets. Security arrangements remain fragile. This commercial compromise provides financial relief to Houthi and Iranian networks, creating long-term strategic vulnerabilities across critical sea lanes.

Comment

Maritime bypassing strategies via the East-West Petroline expose structural bottlenecks inherent to overland hydrocarbon diversion. Pumping crude to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu temporarily circumvents Iranian anti-ship missile batteries along the Strait of Hormuz. However, offloading at Yanbu merely shifts maritime exposure into the narrower engagement envelope of the southern littoral. Tankers clearing the port must still transit within range of Houthi anti-ship emplacements situated on Perim Island.

The physical mechanics of the Petroline rely on eleven intermediate pumping stations stretching across Saudi Arabia to sustain export velocity. Interruptions to turbine-driven pumps or the Yanbu South Terminal immediately throttle daily throughput well below nominal capacity. Sustained crude export thereby remains bound to vulnerable shore-based pumping nodes and the narrow maritime fairway off Mokha.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If persistent Houthi interdiction closes the maritime approaches near Perim Island, how viable is the East-West Petroline as an enduring strategic bypass rather than a temporary logistical relief valve?

The operational record suggests the Petroline functions only as an interim mitigation tool rather than a comprehensive maritime substitute. Pumping capacity at Yanbu cannot accommodate total Persian Gulf crude volumes without major terminal expansions, while downstream tankers remain vulnerable to coastal interdiction off the Yemeni littoral. In practice, overland diversion shifts logistical exposure to fixed pipeline pumping infrastructure without neutralizing the maritime threats controlling the southern chokepoints.

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