The ideas of Israel

European Council on Foreign Relations | Beth Oppenheim

Israeli political dynamics are undergoing a structural rightward transformation as illiberal, ethno-nationalist, and religious forces steadily redefine state institutions and security doctrine. This internal ideological reconfiguration extends well beyond Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s 18 non-consecutive years in power or the pending October 27th election. Four principal Jewish political camps now compete over governance, territorial boundaries, and judicial authority: Liberal Zionists, Nationalists, Ultra-Orthodox, and Religious Nationalists.

Following the October 7th 2023 Hamas attacks, mainstream consensus has coalesced around overwhelming military power and permanent control over the West Bank and Gaza. Support for Palestinian statehood has collapsed. Concurrently, 2.1 million Palestinian citizens living within the Green Line remain largely excluded from executive power, despite tactical parliamentary developments involving Ra’am and Yoav Segalovitz. Even if Liberal Zionists secure electoral gains to curb democratic backsliding, Israel's core political centre of gravity has permanently shifted toward hardline majoritarian nationalism and entrenched territorial control.

Comment

The erosion of Liberal Zionist influence codifies a permanent doctrinal shift in the Israel Defense Forces from conflict management to open-ended territorial enforcement. For decades, Israeli general staff planning relied on periodic deterrent operations—known doctrinally as "mowing the grass"—to degrade perimeter threats while preserving diplomatic latitude. The political ascent of Religious Zionist leaders like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir replaces that cyclical approach with ground campaigns intended to establish permanent physical control across the West Bank and Gaza. Operational directives issued to the IDF Central Command now prioritise irreversible territorial consolidation over temporary containment.

Downstream, this open-ended combat commitment across Palestinian territories overstretches the Israel Defense Forces' reserve formations and breaks its historic mobilisation model. Sustaining permanent garrison tasks along the Netzarim Corridor and across the West Bank intensifies operational friction over military service exemptions for Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah constituents. The IDF General Staff faces widening personnel deficits that cannot be resolved without enforcing conscription orders against yeshiva students in Bnei Brak and Jerusalem.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If the IDF General Staff commits to permanent territorial enforcement along the Netzarim Corridor and the West Bank, which factor will break first — the operational tolerance of secular reserve brigades or the political coalition shielding Haredi draft exemptions?

The pattern of recent Knesset disputes suggests that operational strain among IDF reserve brigades will reach a breaking point before ultra-Orthodox parties concede on conscription. While Degel Hatorah and Agudat Yisrael treat draft exemptions as an existential theological red line that would immediately collapse the governing coalition, economic and fatigue thresholds among secular reservists are already degrading long-term retention. The trajectory indicates the IDF leadership will experience severe readiness bottlenecks across Central Command deployments before the political echelon enforces conscription orders in Bnei Brak.

Share your assessment in the comments below.

To read in details click here