The Myth of Inevitable Russian Victory over Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War | Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Shymkiv, Nikolai Sundstrom

Russian forces have made effectively zero net gains in 2026 at the cost of over 40,000 casualties per month since July, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses. It judges a Russian military victory extraordinarily unlikely unless Western support for Ukraine collapses, and says Ukraine has held the initiative in key sectors.

Operation Vivaldi liberated around 277 square kilometres and 16 settlements near Lyman. Putin’s claims of gains are fictional, ISW says, and it is unclear whether he is lying or being lied to. Over 1.5 million Russian personnel have been killed or seriously wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion, and recruitment lags losses. At the 2026 rate of approximately 0.25 square kilometres per day, Russia would need 60 years to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Russia could still win. ISW sees a collapse of Western support as the likelier route.

Comment

Russian military correspondents complain of what they call beautiful reports, in which units claim gains they have not made. A headquarters depends on such reports to see the front. If subordinate units overstate progress, the commanders above them plan against a map that does not match the ground. The Kharkiv buffer zone shows the gap: Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov claims about 75 percent of it, while ISW observes evidence for around 35 percent.

A false map carries costs inside the Russian force. ISW says Ukrainian units have lured Russian troops into traps because those troops believed they were crossing territory they controlled. Reserves and fire support assigned against an inflated picture of control could likewise reach sectors that need them less, though the source does not document that effect. Phantom gains also reach the top, since leaked Russian maps often match Putin’s own claims.

ISW’s zero-net-gains figure invites the same test. The brief offers no comparable audit of Ukrainian claims. Operation Vivaldi likely began around March, yet Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi began announcing its phases only in September.

Strategic Question for Discussion

What happens to Russian reserve allocation in the Kharkiv buffer zone if Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov’s 75 percent claim reflects what his own headquarters believes?

My assessment is that a headquarters convinced it holds 75 percent of the zone would see little reason to reinforce it. That would leave the distance to ISW’s 35 percent open to Ukrainian counterattack. The pattern suggests the answer turns on whether Nikiforov is overstating for superiors or has been misled himself, which the brief cannot settle.

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