US, Israel plan renewed Iran strikes after midterms, focusing on short, intense attacks - report

The Jerusalem Post | Idan Kweller

The United States and Israel have drawn up contingency plans for a compressed, three-day military campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, power infrastructure, and missile installations following the 3 November US midterm elections. Long-range fighter rehearsals over Iraq and Syria demonstrate integrated multi-domain strike capability, allowing joint forces to coordinate electronic warfare, surveillance, and aerial refueling.

This operational posture serves as a dual-track strategy to pressure Tehran while diplomatic backchannels remain active. Washington requires progress on capping Iranian nuclear material enrichment before relaxing economic sanctions. Conversely, Iranian negotiators insist on ending the blockade and restoring maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials also threatened asymmetric counterstrikes against regional data centres and undersea communications cables if attacked. Digital infrastructure threats underscore systemic vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan conveyed American warnings directly to Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei. Military options remain poised alongside mediation.

Comment

A three-day compressed air campaign against hardened targets like the Pickaxe Mountain underground nuclear facility exposes the physical limits of air-delivered kinetic munitions against deeply buried centrifuge infrastructure. Delivering sufficient destructive energy to rupture subterranean structures requires sustained, heavy-tonnage penetrator strikes alongside continuous airborne electronic warfare suppression. Standard tactical air platforms, such as Israel's F-16 fighter aircraft, lack the internal bay capacity for super-heavy bunker-busters like the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Consequently, short-duration offensive operations against deeply fortified Iranian nuclear infrastructure depend entirely on specialized strategic bomber support from the United States Air Force.

The technical bottleneck centres on weapon mass and kinetic impact velocity required to shear through reinforced concrete caps before detonating internal warheads. Tactical strike fighters executing low-observable profiles over long ranges in contested Iraqi airspace can only deliver lighter penetrators, which damage superficial access shafts rather than destroying underground centrifuges. Disabling the underground cascades without heavy penetrators relies instead on severing external power grids and cooling conduits via precision-guided standoff munitions.

Strategic Question for Discussion

If tactical air assets like the F-16 are physically incapable of carrying heavy penetrators such as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which operational trade-off governs the effectiveness of a three-day strike campaign against Pickaxe Mountain?

A compressed three-day strike window forces planners to choose between attempting partial kinetic degradation of fortified underground facilities like Pickaxe Mountain or neutralizing vulnerable surface support infrastructure to halt enrichment indirectly. The operational evidence points toward surface infrastructure degradation, as tactical platforms lack the heavy warheads needed to breach deeply buried structures without prolonged strategic bomber participation. Consequently, short-duration air campaigns yield immediate disruptions to power and cooling systems rather than permanent destruction of subsurface centrifuge cascades.

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