New Halls and Shadows of an Old War

Al Jazeera Center for Studies

United States carrier strike groups centred on USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), and USS George Washington (CVN-73) are preparing for potential renewed operations against Iran following 2026 combat under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion. C-17 transport flights have delivered a Patriot air defence battery to Ovda Air Base alongside expanded drone reconnaissance.

Escalating military preparations follow Tehran's rapid recovery of long-range offensive capacity, including underground assembly of Arash suicide drones alongside Shahed-136 systems. The strategic expansion risks triggering a costly war of attrition that could paralyse Middle Eastern energy and civilian infrastructure. Iranian armed forces have intercepted multiple American MQ-9 Reaper and LUCAS unmanned aircraft over the Strait of Hormuz. Friction remains high. Tehran has expanded diplomatic shuttles with Mecca Defense Pact members Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to manage regional risks, while Washington faces mounting political constraints following the November 2026 midterm elections.

Comment

The regeneration of Iranian Arash drone assembly lines inside subterranean facilities demonstrates the structural limits of standoff air campaigns against hardened manufacturing infrastructure. Operation Epic Fury degraded surface industrial targets, yet decentralised tunnelling allowed Tehran to restore offensive production without relying on vulnerable above-ground plants. This dispersion shifts CENTCOM targeting requirements from primary Iranian manufacturing plants to specific component supply chokepoints.

A comparable shift occurred during Operation Hydra in 1943, when Allied strikes on Peenemünde forced Germany to transfer V-2 rocket assembly to the underground Mittelwerk complex. Subterranean relocation preserves basic assembly capacity, but as seen at Mittelwerk, subterranean space constraints cap total missile throughput compared to unconstrained surface facilities.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor presents a greater constraint on sustained Iranian long-range strike capacity: the destruction of specialized component supply chains feeding into underground Arash drone assembly, or the physical throughput limits inherent to subterranean manufacturing spaces like those seen historically at Mittelwerk?

The historical pattern from subterranean facilities like Mittelwerk indicates that physical throughput limits pose the more immediate ceiling on output rate. While component supply chains for Arash drones can be diversified through secondary procurement networks, the logistical bottlenecks of subterranean transport corridors create rigid boundaries on daily assembly volume.

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