China’s Threat to Ban Critical Minerals Exports Is a Bluff

Agathe Demarais

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Weaponizing commodities is in fashion. In September 2022, Russia cut off gas flows to Europe in a bid to weaken European economies after its invasion of Ukraine. Almost one year later, in July 2023, the Chinese government announced that exports of gallium and germanium, two niche metals used in technology manufacturing, would henceforth require licenses. These metals share two features. First, they form part of a group of around 30 raw materials that are crucial for the green energy transition, digital hardware, and defense production. Second, as is the case for many critical raw materials, China holds a dominant position for the mining and processing of gallium and germanium, giving Beijing leverage over Western economies.