Caspian Less Safe for Shipping as Russia and Iran Increase Military Use of Sea

Paul Goble

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The recent sinking of an Iranian ship in Turkmenistan’s sector of the Caspian Sea on January 14 may or may not have been the result of hostile action (Telegram/@istories_media, January 14). According to Nurani, an Azerbaijani columnist writing under a mononym, it has called attention to how “the weapons corridor” Russia and Iran have established in the sea means that the Caspian and its littoral are no longer safe. As far back as 2023, reports arose that Iran was sending weapons across the Caspian to Russia for attacks on Ukraine or from Russia through Iran to their allies and partners (Meduza, August 19, 2025; Minval Politika, January 17). Nurani continues, “From [the Caspian], Russia has launched Kalibr missiles at targets in Ukraine, and these are most often civilian targets. Even earlier, before the start of the Ukrainian war, targets in Syria were attacked [by Russia] from the Caspian Sea” (Minval Politika, January 17). Russia’s use of its Caspian Flotilla against Ukraine is also important, as it has done so by moving ships from the Caspian to the Sea of Azov via the Volga-Don Canal (see EDM, August 16, 2022).

The Azerbaijani analyst explains that Ukraine openly targets Russian vessels in the Caspian. Nurani notes, The base of the Red Banner Caspian Flotilla in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, was attacked by Ukrainian drones. Oil platforms in the Russian sector of the Caspian have repeatedly come under attack. Finally, there have been attacks on a Russian control ship in the Caspian” (Minval Politika, January 17). The columnist further suggests that “it is even possible that tomorrow the United States and its allies will enter the game … [since] the issue of strikes on Iranian targets is on Washington’s agenda” (Minval Politika, January 17). Russia feels confident that it can develop ties between itself and Iran—given that both are littoral states, something the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea permits—even as it declares that expansion of ties between other littoral states and foreign powers such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are impermissible under the terms of the convention.