13 February 2026

Offsetting Without Oversight: The Wrong War with China

Erika Lafrennie

US defense strategy is converging around the China challenge with a level of clarity not seen since the Cold War. Precision strike investments are accelerating. Unmanned systems are transitioning from development to deployment. Force posture across the Indo-Pacific is being reshaped to support sustained strategic competition. The effort is deliberate, resourced, and institutionally coordinated, but the operational focus is misaligned with the nature of the conflict.

Offset thinking anchored in traditional warfighting domains cannot account for the terrain where strategic outcomes are already being shaped. Disruption requires domain awareness. Competitive advantage depends on recognizing where systems are being contested and how control is being exercised.

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