The Iran war has caused a significant global economic impact, marked by a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from $60 to $91 per barrel. Global oil deliveries from the Persian Gulf experienced a cumulative shortfall of roughly one billion barrels, absorbed by reduced demand, increased non-Gulf production, and a 250 million barrel drop in global oil inventories, which the IEA warns is unsustainable.
The Global South faces severe distress, including doubled transport costs in Somalia, fatal fuel price protests in Kenya, and LPG price hikes in India leading to enterprise shutdowns and fears of mass migration. The World Food Program projected 45 million more people could face acute hunger. Developing countries also confront financial pressures like larger trade deficits, inflation, currency depreciation, and central bank reserve drawdowns (e.g., Philippines 8.1%, India 5.1%). Europe anticipates a stagflationary shock despite lower Persian Gulf oil dependence, while Latin America shows resilience due to energy exports but remains vulnerable to fertilizer costs. In the United States, energy exporters gained $50 billion from an additional 145 million barrels exported, yet consumers paid an extra $40 billion for gasoline, disproportionately affecting lower-income households.
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