Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that middle powers must stop negotiating alone, as they are becoming more exposed, not more powerful. The conditions that allowed middle powers to flourish, such as U.S. hegemony, an expanding global economy, and the ability to trade with rival powers without choosing, are eroding.
Growth has slowed, globalization is a contest over chokepoints, and great powers like the United States and China are more predatory, using dominance to extract concessions, deindustrialize, create dependency, and narrow choices. This results in a harsher, more hierarchical world where hedging looks like betrayal. Middle powers must move beyond symbolism to strategy, aligning with a great-power system that offers the best shelter from their gravest threats, building national strength, and bargaining for influence within that coalition, rather than pursuing the fantasy of free agency.
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